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Was the stock market justified in giving the technology industry a huge haircut (maybe even a decapitation!) this month? Is SaaS going the way of print media in the 90s? The narrative goes something like this: AI—especially LLMs—has broken the old rules of software. Technical functionality is about to become completely commodified. The moats are gone, and the margins will soon follow. The magic is over. Chris Paik, Cofounder and General Partner at Pace Capital, put it bluntly: "SaaS, ARR, magic numbers—these are all shorthand to understand the old model of business building in software, one where the expense associated with creating software was a moat. The invisible hand has been stayed in software for a long time, but LLMs will usher in its swift, familiar corrective force. Majoring in computer science today will be like majoring in journalism in the late 90's." Right now there's also a lot of smart investors and executives scratching their heads, saying that this sure feels like an overreaction. Here's my take: I don't know about short-term stock fluctuations, but what we're seeing is clearly a signal. And it's a signal we have to take seriously. I speak from experience. | | |
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